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This is part 8 of a series of 8 articles from the European Institute for Climate and Energy, translated by Google (so please excuse the quality or lack thereof).
Click here for the original article.

Part 8: Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change. Future Development and the temperature fluctuations

While IPCC and Co. are using their climate models and climate scenarios on a sinking ship, as their scenarios and statements are all next to lie and have not yet understood, to throw the life line, probably because the too much luxury, and the previous extravagant, carefree life is at risk, existential fear so to speak, part 8 shows by means of natural parameters of the sun and the solar system, how and in what direction the climate in the next 40-50 years, 200 years and 2,000 years will develop. Further, we pursue the question, if and when to expect is a next Ice Age. For that we examine the stellar objects beyond the limits of the solar system.

Future Development and the temperature fluctuations

As the temperature evolution depends only on the solar activity, the temperatures will decrease with the currently declining solar activity as well, as we observe this for about 10 years. NASA come to this realization, as does the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) in Orlando.

As stated, the main solar cycle, the average 208-year-old de Vries/Suess cycle determines our climate significantly. It had his maximum at the beginning of the century (2002/2003). Like after every major solar cycle, since then the temperatures go back considerably.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 183 shows the cold periods of the last 1100 years (supplemented by source: United States Geological Survey) . The maxima of the warm periods correlate each with the maximum of the de Vries/Suess cycle. After each maximum temperatures fall significantly.

Therefore, the temperature profile of selected stations after the preceding maximum of the de Vries/Suess cycle are considered. This was in the 1790's. Only those stations were considered in which a natural oscillation is seen to rule out that human effects, before all of the heat island effect, interfere with the temperature gradient.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 184, Source: Prof. Ewert, EIKE, shows the temperature response of Copenhagen in the period 1768 - 2009. The red line indicates the time of the maximum in the main solar cycle. Up to a period of 20 - 30 years after the main solar cycle, the temperatures fluctuate greatly between warm and cold (red area). Until it reaches its minimum, can be reported to remain relatively high temperature fluctuations, but at a lower level overall (green area). Immediately before and after its minimum the climate system is as it were, in his steady, cold state and the rashes are the lowest (blue area). Before the temperature to rise (increasing solar cycle), the temperatures drop to a Minumum and then rise steadily (black lines).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 185, Source: (http://www.lanuv.nrw.de/luft/wirkungen/klima_grundlagen.htm) shows the temperature response of the Hohenpeissenberg from 1781 to 1995 according to Fricke 1997. The red line indicates again the maximum of the main solar cycle. Again, until 30 years after the main solar cycle strong annual variations of temperature can be seen (red area), which are then reduced (green area) and have the lowest values after the minimum in the main solar cycle (blue area).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 186: You can see the temperature history of Vienna in the period 1775-2008, Source: Prof. Ewert, EIKE. The temperature profile behaves as in the previous series.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 187: Also the same image at the temperature transition series in Munich during the period 1781 - 1991.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 188: Temperature response series of Berlin-Dahlem 1701 to 2008 with the same characteristics.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 189: Central England temperature transition series from 1659 to 2000 (all sources not specifically mentioned: Prof. Ewert, EIKE). With its balanced maritime climate between the Atlantic and North Sea, England will certainly be a special place. This shows that here the "green" phase does not differ of the "red" phase as much as in Central Europe. But here too this pattern exists in spite of the moderation through the ocean. The temperature transition series is particularly interesting because it is going back to 1659 and can be mirrored in another major solar cycle (maximum around 1590). During the era of the "Little Ice Age" is also clear here, the typical temperature response pattern. Also at the preceding main solar cycle the temperatures first fall strongly before they rise again (black lines).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 190: Another region, besides Central Europe and Great Britain, St. Petersburg also depicts the typical pattern of temperature response after a maximum in the main solar cycle.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 191: In Vilnius, a similar picture.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 192: Not only Europe but also America follows the same pattern of temperature response after a major solar cycle, even if the middle part is missing, because no measurements are available.

Conclusion
Based on the solar activity variations, the current and further decline in solar activity, as well as comparisons of the temperature development after a major solar cycle, a noticeable drop in temperatures can be expected for the next 40-50 years. After a major solar cycle, the temperature drops significantly, while they are subject to high fluctuations between warm and cold, as we experience it today, so that the temperature response should be subject to these extremes between hot and cold for the next 10 years. The climate system behaves like a physical, electrical system, which responds in its transitional phase (Hystherese, the climate between hot and cold time period) sensitive to changes in its input variables. In the steady state (eg, cold), it is to a large extend stable and subject to only minor fluctuations. About. 40 - 50 years after a peak in the main solar cycle, the fluctuations between warm and cold are relatively high, although at lower levels in total. In the "steady" state, the system is stable at low levels.

Although the studies of one, or two main solar cycles are surely too small to be able to make a conclusive statement, it shows that large temperature fluctuations between warm and cold years in the first decades after a major solar cycle, especially in Central Europe, are nothing unusual. The current fluctuations therefore fit in very good way to historic.

Can also a more detailed forecast be deduced for the temperature evolution? The author does not consider this to be impossible in principle, if for that additional solar cycles will be used, such as the Hallstatt cycle, which is the envelope of the de Vries-Suess-Zykluss. Solar cycles determine the climate on Earth not only on short time scales but also on long time scales, as shown in the following sections.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 193 shows the in average 2300 years lasting Hallstatt cycle (smooth curve) obtained from 14C values of tree rings (black curve: de Vries-Suess cycle), source: United States Geological Survey, "The Sun and Climate," August 2000. The author has added to this the cycle times, and half-cycle times (between two extremes). It can be clearly seen that the length of the Hallstatt cycle increases back to the present. Between the last maximum (red, vertical arrow) and minimum (blue, vertical arrow) is a period of 1,500 years (green rectangle). It had its last Minimum about AD 650. At that time there were especially cold temperatures. If this green rectangle is mirrored, it appears that based on tis 14C-evaluating the Hallstatt cycle will have its peak around the year 2150 (in the figure, the scaling of the last 500 years is not true to scale to the other, so it seems that the maximum is around 2000). At the time of the Holocene climate optimum (red bar), the cycle time was significantly shorter.

Based on this study (longer cycle time) it can be assumed that the trend of temperature decrease in the Holocene, as shown in the work of Schönwiese, is continued.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 194, the temperature response in the Holocene according to Schönwiese and additionally from the author, the linear trend (red).

The analogy that with short cycle times, higher temperatures are associated, is corroborated by the investigations, that also at the Schwabe cycle (small scale), the periods with short cycle times, belong to the active Sun, and thus to the hot days! When the Hallstatt cycle reaches his next relative maximum, it can be assumed that at least for the next 1500 years the temperature trend is not upwards, but on the contrary, downwards to colder temperatures.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 195 is used to compare the results from the Figure 193. It comes from Solanki, SK, et al. 2005 (red smoothed curve: Ray Tomes, " Cycles in Sunspot Number Reconstruction for 11.000 Years "- on the basis of calculations of the regression curve Tomas gives the maximum of the fitted curve - Hallstatt cycle - in the year 2293 ). This work clearly demonstrates the Hallstatt cycle. As in the representation of the USGS, the cycle time during the Holocene optimum, was brief. At Solanki et al. also the rising cycle during the Roman climate optimum (right red bars). Even with Solanki et al. the cycle times of the Hallstatt cycle get longer to the present, which suggests that there is a solar cycle, which is superior to the Hallstatt cycle, which determines the cycle length. According to the study of Solanki et al.,the Hallstatt cycle increases until about the year 2200, which corresponds roughly to the study of the USGS. Only then the solar activity will go back for a long time (at least 1,500 years until the next relative minimum in the Hallstatt cycle). After M.A. Xapsos and E.A. Burke , "Evidence of 6,000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers"( Solar Physics , Volume 257, Number 2 , 363-369) this solar cycle, time superior to the Hallstatt cycle, exists.

The following figure also confirms the temperature trend of the Hallstatt cycle until the year 2200.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 196 shows the average temperature (red) in 50-year intervals. Source: ( http://www.abd.org.uk/pr/274.htm). A vibration is clearly seen, which is due only to natural origins. If the rising cycle length is set equal to the descending (full wave), we obtain the enhanced image (gray) until the year 2200. Here, too, the temperatures still rise up to the year 2150. The temperature drop to C, i.e. up to the year 2050 shows, firstly, the existing 10-year temperature drop, the upcoming declining solar activity, and the temperature evolution after the preceding peak of the main solar cycle, after the temperatures dropped as well (red column at 1800 ).

These solar activities, which are acting on long time scales, indicate the long-term trend. They provide no information on short-term fluctuations. For this purpose, as shown, the solar cycles, such as Schwabe and de Vries/Suess cycle are necessary. These show the changes in climate on time scales of years or decades. By which, over the next 30-40 years a significant cooling occurs, as we watch them for several years already.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


The two charts in Figure 197, Source: (http://garymorris93.cwahi.net/weather/solar_variations.html), show period of time (left) and phase delay (right) of the Hallstatt cycle. Clearly be seen that during the climatic optimum in the Holocene, cycle time and phase delay were very small respectively strongly negative, which is typical for a strong solar activity! Its period is again a cycle of about 7,800 years ago.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 198 shows the temperature response in the Antarctic, the last 5,000 years (http://www.c3headlines.com/). The warm periods of the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman climate optimum and the Holozänoptimum clearly define themselves. The current temperature level is to be classified as moderate. Alone in 13 time periods, it was warmer in the last 5,000 years ago than today. Since the beginning of this century a marked drop in temperature is recorded. The current temperatures (2010) are to be classified as moderate. The trend is negative (turquoise arrow)

During the period an oscillatory behavior (green) is clearly to be seen, with extremes from about 1,000 years ago and 4,500 years ago, which can only be attributed to natural causes. With reference to half the period length which can be seen on the figure, the total oscillation period for one cycle is approximately 7,800 years. This is the same oscillation period, as it has the sun in its long-term activity fluctuations in Figure 197. Also the extremes in Figure 197 match fairly good with Figure 198 - about 1,100 years ago and 4,300 years ago.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 199 Source: United States Geological Survey, " The Sun and Climate, "August 2000 shows the energy spectrum of 14C data. Clearly to recognize are the maxima, assigned to the solar cycles.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 200 Source: K.E. Behre, "Problems of Coastal Research", Volume 28, Isensee publisher, 2003, shows the sea level fluctuations along the German North Sea coast. Oscillations are clearly to see with an average length of about 510 years ago. These are aligned with the previous figure, showing on the basis of the spectral analysis, that there is a period in the solar activity with a length of 504 years.

Beyond the direct solar activity also the orbital parameters of the earth are variable. Prolonged periodic changes in solar radiation, combined with the orbital parameters of the Earth the Milankovic cycles, the changes in the Earth's orbit, Earth's axis tilt, the seasons change on Earth's orbit and the Earth's orbit around the sun are involved.

Milankovic cycles:

a) Eccentricity: shape of the elliptical orbit around the sun
There is a shift in the solar radiation between the hemispheres. The semi-axes can vary from 0.005 to 0.058. The difference in solar radiation varies between 27 W/m2 and 314 W/m2 (Prof. Weber). At 0.0 elliptical both semi-axes are the same (circular orbit). With increasing eccentricity the orbit becomes increasing an ellipse, whereby in the course of an orbit (year), the distance earth to the sun and thus the power input changes, which can lead to temperature fluctuations, but not necessarily, because Obligität(??) and precession either weaken but also strengthen the effect. It thus provides an overlay.

At present the eccentricity is 0.0174, which means 6.7% more radiation in the southern hemisphere. At .058, the difference is about 28%. The period varies for reasons of the gravitational influence of the giant planets from 90,000 to 100,000 years.

b) Obligität: earth's tilt
At a strong tilt there are more pronounced seasons, and strong fluctuations of the absorbed solar energy in the high latitudes. The fluctuation range is 21.30° - 24.36°. The current value is 23.47°. In the northern hemisphere (large land masses), the cooling is enhanced if the tilt is at its lowest. In summer due to lack of heat snow can not be sufficiently melted. The periodicity is 40,000-41,000 years. The solar radiation varies by 30 W/m2 (Prof. Weber).

Through the tilt of the earth's angle the incidence of solar radiation on the earth changes. The range within which these are perpendicular to the earth is called subsolare zone.

With increasing inclination of the Earth's axis the subsolare zone (the term is used mainly in English) shifts more and more in the temperate zones, and thus towards the north or south pole (below). As a result, the solar radiation from summer to winter in these latitudes fluctuates more and more, resulting in hot summers and cold winters. There then exists a climate with large temperature fluctuations. A smaller tilt of the axis thus leads to a more balanced climate.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 201 (Source: www.Biosphaere.info) shows the location of the subsolar region (sun stands vertically in the sky) to the Obligität(??) and the right figure shows its actual migration over the year, Source: (http://joseph-bartlo.net/supp/sungeo.htm).

c) precession: the axis of the earth and the orbit - Hike of the vernal equinox
The precession (from the Latin praecedere = progress) moderates the timing of the seasons. After each solar orbit the earth does not exactly get back to its original position, but "moves" slightly forward in its orbit through the zodiac. Currently the Earth reaches its greatest proximity to the sun as at 03 January. The cycle takes 25,780 years. It does not change the amount of radiation, but the date.

The Milankovic cycles do not address changes in the solar activity itself. Therefore, at this point it is searched for long-period oscillations, which correspond with the Milankovic cycles.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 202: period length (left) and phase shift (right) of the 5800 year cycle, which has an impact on the 200- and the 2,300-cycle, source: (http://garymorris93.cwahi.net/weather/solar_variations.html). It is notable that during the peak of the last ice age 20,000 years ago, the cycle time is very long and thus the solar activity was correspondingly low. At the end of the last ice age about 12,500 years ago, the solar activity reached high levels (minimum cycle length).

It stands to reason that in addition to the Milankovic cycles, which reflect the dependence of the solar radiation to the orbital parameters of the earth, in addition the solar activity varies greatly in large time scales and the Milankovic cycles, which describes the change in the Earth's orbit, and thus connected, a change in solar radiation, which reaches the earth's surface, the influences that lead to the Milankovic cycles, also directly modify the solar activity. Since the Milankovic cycles are caused by the planets of the solar system, and according to Landscheidt moderate the planet, the solar activity on short and medium time scales, the results suggest that the planets not only affect the time intervals of the Earth's orbital parameters, but also the sun, even on long time scales .

The interesting question when or whether the since some 3 million years observed glacial intervals continue, can not be answered based on currently available evidence about the solar activity. it can currently be evaluated primarily statistically.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 203, source: NZZ of 11 July 2007, "More detailed information about the abrupt climate changes of the ice ages" (Original:. Matrat et al.) shows above the orbital parameters of the earth, middle the temperature in the Mediterranean, and lower in the Antarctic. During the period three full glacial periods can be seen. After each temperature maximum (red dashed line), there is a typical temperature drop after the same pattern (blue dashed line). The time span between them is relatively constant at about 18,000 years. The green dashed line marks the time (app. 13,700 years after Max), where the temperature reaches its mean, ie crosses the transition to colder temperatures in the period.

As the figure shows, the large-scale glaciation in the last three ice ages (blue, solid line) was in a significant time interval to the maximum temperature. The time intervals are again relatively constant and fix the beginning 55-60 thousand Years after the start of the temperature maximum. To what extent these temperature patterns can be transferred on the current cycle, whose warming period began about 12,500 years ago, as is mentioned above, can not be answered scientific currently. According to the statistical trends, the fall below the mean, ie the begin of permanently cooler years (blue dashed line) is pending for in about 1,200 years. Based on the known solar cycles, at that time the solar minimum in the next Hallstatt cycle begins. After another 5,000 years the first refrigeration cycle begins whose duration on the basis of the previous cycles is 2 - 3 thousand Years

A large-scale glaciation, which is commonly associated with the term "ice age" is, according to this statistical analysis to be expected in about 42 thousand Years. Scientific reports, such as "Prevented man an ice age" from S.D.W 02/06, with the following subtitle: "It seems that even the farmers of the Neolithic period caused a significant greenhouse effect, as they with the clearing of forests and the cultivation of wet rice released large amounts of carbon dioxide and Methane" are in the context of the real in temperature events of the last Ice Ages, in which the first hot epoch lasted 18,000 years on average, absolute nonsense and as such can not be topped. It is the tragical and to failure condemned attempt to derive a non-existent effect, the greenhouse effect. In the present case from the history of mankind, wanting to give it a supposed reality. But here, too, the desire doesn't withstand the reality. Instead of continuing to direct the focus towards so-called greenhouse gas, the resources should be better invested in solar research in order to wrest from her the secrets to answer the question of when the climate on earth really changes.

For long-term observations of the temperature evolution, as already described, the Milankovic cycles are used. This is based on the fact that the climate of the last 3 million years, back when the earth had increased glaciation, swung between two time cycles, which correspond to the Milankovic cycles (figure below)

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 204 Source: (http://www.moraymo.us/current_projects.php) shows the temperature fluctuations in the last 3 million years determined from the oxygen isotope ratio. 3 million years ago until about 700,000 years ago, the temperature fluctuated cyclically over periods of 41,000 years. Then the cycle changed to 100,000 years. The 41-ky-cycle is generally for the Obligität(??) and the 100 ky-cycle for the eccentricity. The reason for this change is not understood in science. Red dots = Obligität, B/M = Brunhes-Matuyama event, J = Jaramillo event, Told = Top of Olduvai event, G/M = Gauss/Matuyama - Event (each change in the magnetic field of the Earth). On the Gauss/Matuyama boundary starts the Quaternary, so the recent Earth epoche, also known as the Ice Age.

As in figure 203 additionally to the temperature response, all three relevant Milankovic cycles (precession, Obligität(??) and eccentricity), as well as the calculated solar radiation for 65° North are shown, their extremes should be mirrored at the temperature development. In the first illustration, the extremes of precession, Obligität and eccentricity.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 205: The Earth's orbital parameters (precession, and eccentricity), as well as the earth's tilt (Obligität), which moderated the effect of solar radiation on the northern/southern hemisphere are at the top, or to be seen directly underneath. The Obligität has the longest period. Their maxima (orbit particularly elliptical) are each accompanied by warm periods of the glacial epochs (green dashed lines). This does not fit the theory, because a circular orbit brings the Earth closest to the sun. Extremes of the Obligität (red dashed lines) and precession (black dashed lines) have no correspondence to temperature events on Earth. Both go down together with hot as well as with cold periods. At the top the level of CO2 and CH4 can be seen, which fit to nothing.

Matrat et al. specified in their data set based on the Milankovic cycles also the calculated value for the solar insolation for 65 ° northern latitude. This geographical area is particularly affected by ice ages and accordingly dynamically.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 206: The dashed black data line shows the dynamic of the solar radiation for the last 420,000 years for 65° North. It varies approximately between 440 W/m2 and 550 W/m2. The author has marked the area above the mean red (warmer) and the blue areas below the mean (colder). Some maxima/minima in the calculated solar radiation are consistent with the temperature response while others are not. Sometimes it should get warmer, but it gets colder and partially get colder, but gets warmer (red block arrows) is. Two examples: At the first block arrow the solar radiation decreased significantly but the temperatures remain consistently warm. On the third block arrow the solar radiation increases strongly, however, the temperature falls to an absolute minimum. Red arrows indicate the maxima and the blue arrows the minima.

The Milankovic cycles don't reflect a consistent picture for the temperature response, which is also visible in the figure below.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 207, source: " Pleistocene glacial variability as a chaotic response to obliquity forcing ", P. Huybers, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University (2009), shows below the Obligität and above the temperature reconstructed from 18O. The curves are inconsistent with each other.

If the Milankovic cycles don't reproduce the temperature evolution clear enough, so-called greenhouse gases play no role, because CO2 does not precede but lags the temperature, remains just the variable sun, which controls the temperature cycles.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 208 shows the frequency spectrum of the temperature data in the Pleistocene. In both works develop the formation of peaks at 23 ky, 41 ky and 100 ky, which are assigned to the Milankovic cycles, source: (http://www.moraymo.us/current_projects.php).

Are there any solar activity cycles, that correspond in length the Milankovic cycles - Yes!

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 209 (http://garymorris93.cwahi.net/weather/solar_variations.html): The 6,000-year solar cycle, which moderates the Hallstatt cycle shows, that a cycle with a length of approximately 22,000 years is superordinated to it. In addition, there is a 100,000-year cycle in the solar activity, the so corresponds to the Milankovic the cycle of the eccentricity, Figure 210

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 210 is an excerpt from the work of Prof. Dr. Mukul Sharma and shows the 100,000-year solar cycle and, as a calibration, the 18O-Gahalt of proxies. Oxygen occurs in three isotopes 16O, 17O and 18O. In hot periods, the lighter 16O evaporates first, so that the amount of 18O stored in the proxy (eg sediments), reflects conclusions about the climatic conditions prevailing at that time. In "astronews.com" of 11 June 2002, the following is stated:

"The magnetic activity of the Sun shows a 100,000-year long cycle, which is apparently in harmony with an identical long cycle of terrestrial climate. This is shown by the research of the geochemist Mukul Sharma of Dartmouth College in Hanover in the U.S. state of New Hampshire. The researcher published his analysis in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters . Sharma compares the production rate of the radioactive isotope beryllium-10 with the variations in the earth magnetic field. "Surprisingly, the data show a variation of solar activity over much longer periods than previously suspected," said Sharma. "Even more surprising is that these variations are apparently linked closely with the glacial and interglacial periods of the past 200,000 years . "

"Beryllium-10 is produced by high energy particles from space that enter Earth's atmosphere. The strength of this "cosmic radiation", and thus the generation rate of beryllium-10, is controlled both by the solar activity and by the strength of the geomagnetic field. Since the strength of the geomagnetic field over the past 200,000 years is well known, Sharma could conclude from the beryllium data on the fluctuations in solar activity. "

"For the formation of the ice ages the climate scientists had been blamed minor fluctuations in the Earth's orbit. However, these variations lead to only minimal changes in solar radiation. In which way these small changes can lead to large differences between glacial and interglacial periods is still unknown. Sharma stressed, however, that his thesis requires further examination: "I've only looked at the past 200,000 years - my calculations must now be verified for the last million years."


The reason why the Milankovic cycles, so the change in the Earth's orbital parameters and the solar radiation calculated thereof doesn't clearly reflect the temperature response as well as ice ages is, because the fact that the "actors" that affect the Earth's orbital parameters, the planets of the solar system, here the large gas planets affect the sun directly and hereby their magnetic activity and thus their energy output (see also Dr. Landscheidt). This is not taken in account at the Milankovic-cycles. This is the missing link, the sun itself, to explain the temperature variation in the Pleistocene, and thus the beginning and end of ice ages. The change between the 41-ky cycle and the 100-ky cycle should be based on changes of the dynamic plasma masses in the tachocline and the convection zone of the sun.

Of particular interest is, as already shown, the tachocline, which is regarded as the origin of the solar dynamo zone. To what extent their location and thickness, which affect the magnetic fields in the convection zone and hence the energy output of the sun, are constant over time is not known. Is thickness and/or location of the tachocline variable, this has of course influence on the magnetic activity of the sun. Until about 10 years ago it was still assumed that the tachocline is constant. Investigations by helioseismology, however, found that it oscillates in a 16-month rhythm and is strongly correlated with the radiation zone.

Tachocline

The tachocline forms the boundary layer between the rigid internal rotation of the sun (upper boundary layer of the radiation zone) and dynamic rotation in the convection zone, whose rotation speed differs significantly from those of the radiation zone. At the boundary layer occurs a strong shear due to the very different rotation. This boundary layer is called the tachocline (figure below). The resulting magnetic fields in the convection zone penetrate to the tachocline where it is wound by shearing, resulting toroidal fields, whose field lines show toward the rotation speed. From a certain threshold ("Instabilities in the Magnetic Tachocline" , R. Arlt, Astro-physical Institute Potsdam ) in the field strength it leads to instabilities in the tachocline.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 211, left (http://lcd-www.colorado.edu/SPTP/sptp_global.html) shows the location of the tachocline to the solar radius, and colored the rotation timing. The right figure shows the changes in the rotation to the solar radius and to the latitude. Black arrow indicates the tachocline, Source: (http://irfu.cea.fr/Sap/Phys/Sap/Activites/Projets/GOLF/science/page.shtml). It can be clearly seen that the differential rotation begins in the tachocline and this is therefore a major factor in the solar magnetism.

The tachocline determines the helicity (direction of rotation, can only be changed there, because it forms the basis for the solar magnetism) of magnetic field lines, i.e. in which form (right handed = positive / left handed = negative) the magnetic fields arise or fall off, respectively. This is crucial for strengthening or weakening of the magnetic fields in the convection zone. The location of the tachocline is currently near the equator at rt = 0.693 solar radii and at 60° at rt = 0.717 solar radii. It thus has a prolate shape, i.e. it runs against the rotational molding, whereupon the rotating body is greatest at the equator, as well as all the planets. The sun itself is on the equator and the pole about the same. Since the interface between the radiation zone and convection zone is at 0.713 solar radii, the tachocline intersects that interface. The tachocline has a thickness of about 30,000 km

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 212 left: spheroid oblate by rotation. Figure 212 right: By rotating elongated spheroid (prolate)

As described above, after the discovery of the tachocline app 20 years ago it was generally believed that the tachocline is a largely stable structure. Since the end of the 1990 years it is known, however, that the tachocline is highly dynamic and vibrant on short time scales with a period of 16 months (figure below).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 213 Source: (soi.stanford.edu/press/GONG_MDI_03-00/pressbase.gif) shows the oscillation in the solar interior (0.72 solar radius above and 0.63 solar radius below). Clearly to be seen the 16-month oscillation, and this is in areas beyond the tachocline. The gas contained therein rotates faster and sometimes slower. Red is for MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager, SOHO) and black to GONG data (Global Oscillation Network Group). "Discovered were the by none predicted currents in four-year series of measurements of the MDI instrument on the SOHO satellite and the GONG network of solar telescopes around the earth. "(~ http://www.astro.uni-bonn.de/ dfischer/news/SuW-L-1-10.html)

After the usual theory of Ruediger and Kitchatinov (1997), it is assumed that during the formation of the tachocline a weak magnetic field was included in the sun, which forces the differential rotation in the outer periphery of the radiation zone and then the tachocline is generated. Next, the theory assumes that the tachocline is actively involved in the radiation zone and there are strong correlations, which is obvious due to its location.

To what extent the tachocline over their by no one suspected oscillation on large time scales is constant or variable, can not be answered from today's perspective, or whether the tachocline maintain their prolate shape, or switch between prolate and oblat, what should have a significant influence on the magnetic activity of the sun. Furthermore, it must be assumed, that effects, that for example, tilt the Earth's axis, change their Obligität, also affect the tachocline and change their position in the sun. In particular, a possible change in the shape and position of the tachocline would have been expected significant effects on the solar magnetic field, whereby in a transition period, the magnetic field in the convection zone can disappear entirely, and can thus trigger prolonged cold spells on the earth. If further, the tachocline changes between prolate (currently) and Oblat, is also an interesting aspect in order to better understand the solar dynamo. Such a change should not be excluded. It is interesting in this context that the last ice age era lies exactly at the Gauss-Matuyama boundary 2.588 million years ago, when Earth's magnetic field reversed the polarity. This is certainly not random. To what extent the "actors" that change the Earth's orbital parameters, let the sun wobble/wiggle in the room, change the Barry Center according Landscheidt, also influence in parallel the convection zone and tachocline of the Sun and the dynamical mass in the mantle *), which ultimately determine the magnetic polarity and thus cause ice ages, for example, can not yet be answered scientifically, but should be content of further research, because the author assumes that this is the key to understanding the Earth's climate on all time scales.

*) In his EIKE article, " Is there a correlation between sunspot activity and seismic-/volcanic-activity?" the author had shown how both the seismic activity, as well as the volcanic activity are synchronized with the activity. By the example of Jupiter's moon "Jo" it can be monitored very well, that gravitational influences of other planets influence the volcanic activity. He has the most volcanoes in the solar system. Reason is the gravitational force of Jupiter on Jo, who performs an elliptical orbit around its planet, permitting the inner shape constant being "kneaded".

As science observes the sun for only a few hundred years by technical means, and this period is vanishingly small in the life of the sun, based on the current observations can not be determined to what extent the current solar activity variations can be applied for the periods before respectively can be continued to apply. Here it is helpful to pull other stars, which approximately correspond to the sun, to get answers.

By always improved measuring systems astrophysicists in recent years were able to explore a variety of stars with magnetic activity. For example, the Emmy Noether Research Group at the Institute of Astrophysics of the University of Goettingen focuses on a large-scale research program ("Magnetic Activity of Sun-like stars and ultra-cold "brown dwarfs") about the subject. Their results are not yet available, since the 5 years walk-scale project is still running. Individual observations already revealed some surprises, suggesting that our sun is subject to activity fluctuations that affect more than 0.1% in the TSI-ray region, as shown in the relevant publications of the TSI and beyond, activity fluctuations are succumbing entirely.

Scientists from the Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the Dartmouth College in Hanover (U.S. state of New Hampshire, " Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars") studied 74 stars on their magnetic activity. Part of the measurements were over 23 years. Based on their studies, the researchers found that about 2/3 of the stars are subject to similar fluctuations in activity, as the sun, while about 1/3 had no activity fluctuations. Under the assumption that the stars behave the same, they concluded that stellar objects like the sun oscillate between two basic activity diagrams, an active phase and a passive phase, without any activity fluctuations, like the sun during the Maunder minimum. In a resting phase a star radiates (brightness range) about 0.4% less than in an active phase. At the star HD 3651 ("Piscium" in the constellation Pisces, HD stands for the Henry Draper Catalogue ) the transition from the period of increased cyclic activity in the Maunder minimum-phase with very low magnetic activity was observed (Nesme-Ribes, E., Baliunas, S.L. and Sokoloff, D.: "The stellar dynamo", Scient American, August 1996, 51-52). .

The previous findings have shown that the transition from the period of activity in the passive phase, first, by strong magnetic activity and on the other hand, the change happens abrupt. This suggests that the processes in the convection zone, which drive a strong solar cycle, in its reversal, new magnetic activity, steam the longer and stronger, the stronger the magnetic activity preceding the main solar cycle. At the sun this is the de Vries/Suess cycle. This would also explain why after each maximum in the de Vries/Suess cycle, the high temperatures on Earth drop significantly.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 214 Source: (http://solar.physics.montana.edu/reu/2004/awilmot/introduction.html), uses the example of 11 stars to show, that these have similar patterns in their activity changes as the sun (top center), which is due to magnetic activity cycles and appears to confirm the initial theory of the Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, that the stars behave the same. The Ca II H and K lines were subject of evaluation.

The Ca II H and K lines are used to determine brightness of stars and go back to Joseph Fraunhofer, who classified with this methodology, the stars, and numbered the brightest with capital letters. The numbering begins in the red part of the spectrum and ends in blue. The calcium II lines lie at 397 nm (H line) and 393nm (K-line) wavelength. The Roman numeral indicates the degree of ionization (neutral = I, II = singly ionized, doubly ionized = III, etc).

The data series in Figure 214 also show that the activity fluctuations are temporal very similar and vary in amplitude usually much stronger than the sun. For HD 152391 (below) the fluctuations are even almost 5 times as strong as the sun, which of course is primarily due to its increased rotation rate compared to the sun.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 215 left shows the activity variations of the star HD 152391, which is with 0.92 solar masses and a surface temperature of 5,500 Kelvin, is very similar to the sun. Right, the star HD 143761, which has virtually no activity fluctuations, thus is in a quiet phase, source as above.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


Figure 216 Source: (http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/eserv/eth:24899/eth-24899-01.pdf) shows the Hertzfeld-Russell diagram for 34 sun-like stars by Radick et al., 1998. Sun and HD 152 391 yellow, orange: star from the figure 214.

Even with stellar objects, where the astronomers so far assumed that they have little or no magnetic activity, such as so-called dwarf stars, studies performed (red dwarf TVLM513-46546, 0.09 solar mass, surface temperature: 2,400 K), that, contrary to the general doctrine, they show not only no, but even a complex magnetic activity (Carnegie Institution, 06.12.2007). This shows that in this field of research still a few "surprises" can be expected .

The Max Planck Institute for Solar Research (MPS) indicates that the sun has now less variation in brightness than comparable active stars (http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/schuessler/klima.pdf ) and represents the question: "Will this continue?" In general terms one may say that stellar objects show a strong magnetic activity, which oscillates between the active phase, which are mostly well above the current solar activity variations and an inactive phase, comparable to the Maunderminimum. The current fluctuations in solar activity compared to their "sisters" are considered to be relatively low

You don't need to be a prophet, that the sun still holds many secrets hidden, waiting to be discovered and which are essential to understanding the climate on Earth. Instead using vast sums of money to chase like like exorcists a devil (CO2), which does not exist, this money should better be invested in solar research. Yield and harvest will turn out more fruitful than the previous dry crop in the greenhouse gases, which after 20 years could not even prove that there is a greenhouse effect - there is no scientific evidence, but solely, assembled computer models with manipulated data (Climate gate) and fed with false assumptions (see the recent example of NASA, which has found that the earth emits five times more heat into space as used in the models and therefore in the models too much energy remains in the atmosphere, with the result, that all climate simulations are basically wrong, with too high temperatures) and IPCC, PIK and Co. then sell the result as a "philosopher's stone". Their intention is clear, as the cartoon shows in Figure 217. That concerns all of us, as the IPCC, PIK and Co. (so far) run their worry free with our tax dollars.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change


The true consensus
Raise your hands. Who believes that greenhouse gases don't have an effect and all of us therefore need a new job? Anyone?


Part 1: The sun sets the temperature response
Part 2: The sun - the amazing star
Part 3: Sunspots and their causes
Part 4a: The atmosphere of the sun: The corona
Part 4b: Heliospheric current sheet and interplanetary magnetic field
Part 5: The atmosphere of the sun: The corona
Part 6: The influence of the sun on our weather / climate
Part 7: The influence of the sun on the cloud cover beyond Svensmark
Part 8: Future Development and the temperature fluctuations



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