This is the third of a series of 8 articles from the European Institute for Climate and Energy, translated by Google (so please excuse the quality or lack thereof).
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Part 3: Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change. Sunspots and their causes

Sunspots are the most well-known structures on the Sun and the visible sign of an ever changing solar activity. They are visible because the surface temperature is about 1500-2000 Kelvin cooler than the 5800 Kelvin hot surface of the sun. Sunspots are classified into size classes, and some are so large that they are visible with the naked eye. Initial observations go back to the 4th and 5 Century BC. to Greece and Asia Minor. Sunspots are an expression of a restless, ever-changing sun and thus it did not fit into the prescribed Catholic world view of the Middle Ages that decreed a pure and spotless sun, so that observations from this period were either concealed or misrepresented. Today, it seems that the prescribed religion of anthropogenic Middle Ages, sorry, the anthropogenic warming, again wants to characterize the image of a "pristine" sun, because otherwise it pretty quickly will unmask the "conjured" image of a man-made warming for what it is: a throwback to the days before the Enlightenment, which we owe to such fighters as Martin Luther and Isaac Newton. No wonder the sun doesn't, or more precisely neglibibly, appear in the postulates of the IPCC on global warming. An absurd idea for anyone who has ever seen the sun in the open air! This part shows how these visible signs of solar activity arise and how they influence the climate on Earth. At the present time, enlightenment is (again) as important as in the Middle Ages, because it is tried then as now, to sell a frightening picture of the devil to the people and then reduce the perceived sin through indulgences.

The magnetic cycle, called Hale cycle (the first magnetic fields in sunspots were measured by the astronomer George Hale in the early 20th century), is 22.1 years. This is the actual cycle of sunspot activity. Spot groups are composed of northmagnetic and southmagnetic spots, which are arranged bipolar (Figure 27).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 27 shows the bipolar arrangement of the sunspots.

During a 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycle: 8 - 15 years) at the rotation of the sun either the North Pole or the south poles run ahead constantly. The Hale polarity law states that sunspots occur in bipolar groups, in which the leading spot has same polarity as the hemisphere in which it occurs. After 11 years, this polarity is reversed. So two 11-year cycles pass until the same arrangement reappears. As is known from studies, the Hale cycle is validate clearly on the earth, e.g. in the air temperature in Central England and in the Drought Index of the U.S.

The renowned astrophysicist HW Babcock (Gold Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society) created in 1961, the dynamo theory, to the understanding of sunspots and magnetic fields.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 28: At the beginning of the cycle (solar minimum) a bipolar magnetic field and vertical field lines in great depth. The differential rotation (equator: 25 days, Pol: 36 days, convective zone: 27 days) "wraps" the field lines around the sun. The field strength is amplified. Strong flux tubes rise and thus form the sunspots. The poloidal fiels is global at the beginning and becomes toroidal. At the end of the cycle the antipodal fields at the equator are neutralizing.

As with the magnetic field of the earth, in addition to the intrinsic rotation an electrically conductive layer must be present. This is the solar plasma, which has high conductivity. The magnetic fields arise in the convection zone, in which the energy is not transported by radiation but by convection (hence the name). This matter currents act as a natural dynamo, in which a portion of the radiation is converted into magnetic energy.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 29: The magnetic field is driven by the solar dynamo by a deep circular electric flux in the solar interior. The interior of the sun, which is not directly observable, can be determined by the constant sun quakes. It was found that their interior, i.e. the radiation zone (15.6 million degrees C) is rotating almost like a rigid body. It covers about 70% of the solar diameter and rotates with a period of almost 27 days. The outer, so-called convection zone (2 million degrees C) is much more turbulent and rotates not only different from the inner zone, but also on the latitude. At the equator, the orbital period is 25.4 days, while at the poles she is, with 36 days, much longer. This leads to complex magnetic interactions, with the boundary layer of the solar magnetic fields playing a crucial role.

The boundary layer of the rigid rotation (core) to the dynamic rotation (convection zone) is called a speedometer. It lies about 200,000 km below the solar surface, has a thickness of about 30,000 km (Figure 30) and is considered as the origin of the variable solar dynamo. In her, by the presence of the inner magnetic field, currents are produced in the deeper layers of the convection zone, whose layers rotate at different speeds. Through this interaction, partly weakening of the resulting magnetic field and partly significant gains occur under the laws of magnetohydrodynamics (describes the behavior of electrically conducting fluids, which are interfused by magnetic and electric fields). This creates a complex pattern of upward and downward directed fields, where downward fields are blocked by the strong internal field.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 30: The rigid zone of the solar radiation generated at the plasma rotation a stable, uniform magnetic field (red lines), which changes only due to variations in the self-rotation (of up to 5%). Above that is the speedometer Cline (green, shown exaggerated). At this boundary layer the plasma, again becomes complete atoms with core and electrons. There is a distinct shear rotation. Here the magnetic fields are deflected differently, depending on the flow rate and composition, where downward fields are blocked by the strong internal magnetic field and deflected. The upwardly fields reach in the turbulent convection zone, there obtaining attenuation or gain (depending on the amount and direction of current flow) and reach the solar surface. The small picture shows toroidal and poloidal field. The right figure shows the location of the speedometer Cline and the different flow velocities in the convection zone from the equator to the pole.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 31: Through the previous shown differential flow directions the two main components of the solar magnetic field are generated, the so-called toroidal (in the direction of the torus, which arises from the differential rotation) and the poloidal (toward the pole, the so-called "alpha effect ") magnetic field components. Both determine the solar variability. The latter arises from turbulence in the toroidal magnetic field. Left is shown schematically a torus with a toroidal component "t" and a poloidal component "P".

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 32: Flow velocities of the sun. When comparing the figures (determined at different times) it's clearly to recognize that both in the sun, and on the solar surface, the flow rates vary continuously, which leads to different magnetic fields. In the figure slowly moving regions are shown in blue and quickly flowing red, whereas on the solar surface red is used for slower and green is used for faster regions. Source: ( http://soi.stanford.edu/results/2001_MDI_sr_review/ ).

The described magnetic processes ultimately result from the interaction of the magnetic field with the plasma flow in the convection zone, where the shear flow plays an important role in the speedometer Cline and lower covection zone. Magnetic field lines are wound up by the shear flow and the magnetic field intensified. The increased magnetic pressure reduces the gas pressure and density in the magnetic layer. Due to the buoyancy, magnetic flux rises to the top through the convection zone in the form of magnetic field tubes. Does such a tube brake break through the solar surface, the intersection points are building bipolar magnetic field concentrations, which appear as sunspots. Convection, differential rotation and different flow velocities thereby produce a complex flow pattern, both in rotation, as well as North-South direction. The latter movements are regarded as the cause of the 11-year polarity reversal in the Schwabe cycle.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 32b: As in the earth, the combined effect of convection and differential rotation produces complex magnetic fields in the inside, which penetrate the Sun's surface concentrated at the different sites, giving rise to sunspots. The solar dynamo forms two stain bands with different magn. polarity, likewise in the northern and southern hemisphere, parallel to the equator (top left). With appropriate flow models it's possible to explain the transport of these magnetic belts (Convoy Belt) and thus the model can be checked (bottom left). Source: Astrophysical Institute Potsdam

The astrophysicist Dr. Theodore Landscheidt (Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity Nova Scotia, Canada) has developed this theory further. The basic theory assumes that the dynamics of the magnetic solar cycle is driven by the rotation of the sun. Here, the intrinsic angular momentum is taken into account, which follows the rotation of the Sun around its axis. Another angular momentum is the orbital angular momentum, which coheres with the very irregular orbital motion of the sun at the center of mass of the solar system.

If, for example, Jupiter would be the only planet in our solar system, then the center of mass would be permanently outside the solar body, for an average 46,000 km above the solar surface. But also the contribution of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune to the location of the mass center relative to the solar center is very significant. It affects considerably if the planets stand to the point nearest the sun, or aphelion. The further the planet is from the sun, the more it pulls the center of gravity closer.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 33 shows how the mass of the solar system moves over the years. This is controlled by the spatial distribution of the masses of the giant planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. The small circles show the center of mass. It shows the relative ecliptic positions of center of mass and center of the sun for the years 1945 - 1995 in heliocentric view. The yellow disc represents the sun. It is easy to understand that by shifting the angular momentum, which is associated with migration of the center of gravity, the sun is modulated, which results in a change in energy output. The blue and red numbers are each a narrow circulation cycle (see Figure 35). Supplemented by source: Dr. Theodore Scheidt country, Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity Nova Scotia, Canada (small photos: NASA).

The fundamental oscillation of the sun at the center of mass of the solar system is, therefore, in addition to the intrinsic angular momentum of the Sun is a key criterion for the short-term variations in solar energy, affecingt the Earth in climate cycles. Both are based, and build on the dynamo theory, which states that the dynamics of the magnetic sunspot cycle is driven by the rotation of the sun.

The extension to the classical dynamo theory is that there is also considered the dynamic orbital angular momentum, which is related to the very irregular orbital motion of the sun around the center of mass of the planetary system, which is caused primarily by the four large gas planet. The difference between the mass center of the sun itself (quiet pole) and center of mass of the solar system is 0.01 to 2.19 solar radii.

The minimum is when Jupiter on one side and Saturn, Uranus and Neptune face him in planets orbit. The maximum when all gas planets are in conjunction. Between these extremes a complex vibration pattern develops, which is modulated by the gravitational forces and the orbital angular momentum. By that, the sheath liquid sun and the solar surface are pictorially spoken kneaded, whereby the magnetic field, the magnetic strength and the energy output of the sun are influenced. The amount of orbital angular momentum to the spin angular momentum of the sun can reach up to 25%. Whereas the intrinsic angular momentum of the sun is relatively stable, the orbital angular momentum can change to the 40-fold from the baseline. According to Landscheidt it's practically called for, to relate the highly variable orbital angular momentum to the variable phenomena on the sun (eg spots, flares, changing the rotation speed), or to investigate this.

At irregular intervals, changes in the equatorial rotation velocity of the sun by more than 5% can be observed (the sun does not rotate uniformly around its axis), which are accompanied by changes in solar activity, since this will change the magnetic field of the sun by the dynamo effect.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 34 shows the variation of center of mass of the solar system from 1900 to 2020, Source: Solar System Dynamics Group, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena. Significantly, a 20-year oscillation is visible, which extrema correlated with solar activity in the Schwabe cycle. More striking is that in 1970 the frequency was lower - the corresponding solar cycle (20) was weak and in 2009 the vibration is small too, so a weak 24th Solar cycle can be expected, especially since both are excluded from the basic pattern.

Since the large gas planets that control the vibration of the Sun around the center of mass, have more than 99% of the total angular momentum in the solar system, the result is that the spin-orbit coupling, the coupling between orbital motion and rotation, is at least partly responsible for the change in rotation speed. The sun moves through the ejected matter and their own magnetic fields, leading to changes in the rotational speed.

The dynamics of the described solar oscillation at the center of mass is expressed quantitatively by the temporally change of the orbital angular momentum. In his research, Dr. Landscheidt came to the following pattern, that resembles the fingers of a large hand.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 35 shows the 9-year (see Figure 33) current variance (square of standard deviation, the squared deviations from the mean) of the orbital angular momentum. The ordinate shows the relative change of the angular momentum L and plotted on the abscissa the time. The picture clearly shows that the change of orbital angular momentum is dominated by a five-fold symmetry. This pattern is modulated by the relative position of the large gas planet, and is constantly, based on the planet Kepler laws. The cycle time of a big finger is on average 35.8 years.

Already in the 16th Century the Englishman Francis Bacon, one of the intellectual founding father of modern science, backed on diligent observation of the nature and adverted to a 35 - to 40-year cycle in Holland, cool, humid and warm-dry sections following one another.

The physicist, geographer and meteorologist Professor Eduard Brückner ("climate fluctuations since 1700," Geographical treatises 14 (1890), 325) re-discovered this cycle in 1887. He showed that many climatic phenomena that appear in various areas of the world, are synchronized and follow a cycle of an average of 35 years. He was even then assuming a connection with the solar activity. The following figure shows the Brückner cycle.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 36: The Bruckner cycle represents a harmonic oscillation in solar activity. The number of sunspots and thus the solar activity fluctuate around a median. Increased activity phases alternate in rhythm from about 35 years. The figure shows the variation in sunspot numbers over the period 1750 - 2000.

The figure shows that in the period from 1750 - 2000, the cycle length varies 27-38 years. The fluctuations in the energy output of the sun, which are visible in the 35-year Bruckner cycle, have a direct impact on the climate of the earth, as Figure 37 shows.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 37: Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Stockholm University, "A regional approach to the medieval warm period and the little ice age", shows temperature fluctuations from ice core in Greenland (blue) and from measurements on the west coast of Greenland (red) in the period 800-2000 (gray: standard deviation). We see a heavily serrated pattern in which alternate relative minima and maxima relative. If e.g. the maxima are characterized (blue lines), there are mapped 31 full periods in the period of approximately 850 - 1935th This gives a mean cycle length of exactly 35 years, which corresponds to the length of the Brückner cycle. Temperature peaks alternate in the middle every 35 years.

Even in one of the most important climate parameters, such as the AMO (Atlantic Multi decades Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, both show the variations in sea surface temperature) validates clearly the Brückner cycle with an average of 35 years. With AMO, he immediately determined the Arctic ice cover, as will be shown and the weather and climate in Central Europe.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 38 left, source: Dr. Landsea shows the AMO oscillation, with a positive and negative phase of in average 33.5 years. Right figure (NOAA) shows the PDO with the negative phase of 33 years.

Dr. Landscheidt writes to that 9-year variance shown in Figure 33: "I've chosen the 9-year running variance because the more curved orbits of the sun with a cycle length of 9 years have proved to be particularly interesting." In other words, this means that other, longer rotations do not yield the distinctive pattern of a large hand, that means the square deviation from the mean looks different, less cyclical. Overall, this is of course something that question its results because they are not universally valid, or can they not be universally valid?

In the studies, Dr. Landscheidt it's about recognizing changes in the magnetic activity and thus the power output of the sun and assigning them. At examinations generally applies, the stronger a system responds to input changes, i.e its output variables are dependent on the input size, the more sensitive is the system and the more accurate it can be observed as a whole to changes and evaluated. If the output variables are only slightly dependent on the input variables, this system is approaching his more stable state. This means that the inertia, which is one of the foundations of a stable state prevents an exact assignment of the output variable (here, the solar energy output) to the input variable (in this case the change of the internal activity of the sun).

However, since the change in flow rate of the plasma mass in the solar mantle is higher, the "close" the rounds of the mass center are - based on the angular acceleration in a circular rotation and of Faraday's Law - the stronger the deflection in the output of the system. If it is to examine how changes in the mass flow of plasma currents, which cause ultimately the magnetic field changes, control the energy output of the sun, necessarily the lowest current variance, i.e. the 9-year variance, must be considered, because only she is capable to reproduce the most accurate picture of the change in the output of the input size.

Dr. Landscheidt doesn't go into the question of his election of the variance, but states only general that they "have proven to be particularly interesting." Possibly he did not know why these are so interesting and only these can be so interesting.

The length of the cycle of the "big hand" in Landscheidt's studies is 178.8 years. Noticeable is, that the Gleissberg cycle is about half as long as the cycle of the "Big Hand". The cycle time coincides with the constellation of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune to the Sun. The cycles of the "big fingers" have an average length of 35.8 years and are associated with solar activity. They coincide with the maxima and minima of the Gleissberg cycle and allow for the first time the long-term prediction.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 39 from the studies of Dr. Landscheidt shows annual mean temperatures from 1850 to 1987 at the surface of the northern hemisphere by PD Jones. The zero phase of the Great finger (BFS) are indicated by arrows. The zero phase of a hierarchically superior big hand (BHS) is marked by a triangle. This has triggered a phase shift. Before BHS the BFS coincide with the maxima of the smoothed temperature curve, after then with minima, which can not be otherwise, if considered, that by the changes in the center of mass solar cycles are linked to increasing and decreasing activity. During increasing solar activity the mass in the solar mantle are accelerated with each zero crossing of BFS. After each BHS the influence of the planets become opposite to the direction of flow of the masses in the solar mantle. This means that at BFS the existing direction of flow is decelerated most strongly and thus the solar activity is most strongly reduced, which results in a temperature minimum on the earth. After two cycles of the big hand the speed of the inner mass is zero (the first accelerates and the second slows down) and the system is set again in motion. A new solar cycle begins. The next low point temperature is to be expected according to Dr. Landscheidt about 2007. Note: This has occurred in the meantime in 2008.

The theoretical explanation of why the planets and with them their orbital angular momentum influence the solar activity is due to the relative change in the center of mass of the solar system to the sun and its focus, making relative forces between the two focal points and the mass of the Sun, which accelerate the internal fluid flows of the Sun or decelerate. This results in an acceleration or deceleration of the solar rotation, which in turn acts back on the internal fluid flows. Thus creating a highly dynamic feedback system. This is comparable with the system Earth / Moon (contrary to the solar system, only two partners are active), as the moon through its position relative to Earth, causes tidal forces with them affects the Earth's rotation.

In Figure 40 (comparable to the two-system: Earth / Moon), the system Sun / Jupiter (massive planet) is shown and the change of SSB (solar system barycenter).

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 40: The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, discovered on the basis of NASA-measurements, that there is a periodicity between Jupiter and its distance from the center of mass of the Solar System (SSB). This is approximately 11.8 years and thus agrees very well with the average length (11.1 years) of the Schwabe cycle.

At the orbital angular momentum in addition to Jupiter, but even the other planets, especially the (further) large gas planet, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus must be considered, whose influences either increase (conjunction) or weaken (opposition) those of the Jupiter, so that from this, according to Kepler's planetary laws, a temporal pattern appears between the maximum and minimum influence of the planets to the sun. According Theodore Landscheidt this pattern has, as already stated, a length of about 180 years.

Based on the influence on the SSB and its effect on the sun, the following estimate for the intensity of the next solar cycles is given by Landscheidt.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 41 shows the measured next solar cycle (yellow) according to the models of Dr. Landscheidt. It currently looks like he's right with the 24th Solar cycle. The data set shows that it will become noticeably colder that it remains cold at least until the 2030-years.

As previously described, the sun does not perform constant motion, but it wobbles in orbit through an imaginary tube, which has a diameter of approximately 3.7 million kilometers.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 42 shows the path of the Sun and Jupiter in orbit. Source: Alexander et al, Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, vol. 49, Page 41, June 2007. The small picture shows the different positions of the sun in this (imaginary) tube.

Dr. Landscheidt further examined the extent to which with his methodology even finer differences in the orbital angular momentum change of the Sun can be exhibited, and therefore their deviations from the mean can be develop even finer than those already seen big finger with a cycle length of 35.8 years. For this he chose 1/3 of 9, ie a three-year variance. The following figure shows the result.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 43 shows the 3-year running variance (square of standard deviation, the squared deviations from the mean) of the orbital angular momentum, again in the period 1800 - 2000, Source: Dr. Landscheidt. There is also a finger pattern. These are known as "little fingers". The small arrows represent zero crossings. The large arrows zero crossings of a "big finger", which means that a "small hand" is identical to the temporal length of a "big finger". The dotted line shows the jump of a "big hand" (BHS) and the numbers are the numbering of the "Little Hands", where the numbers are arranged in the center position. The cycle length of the "little finger" is an average of 7.2 years.

In the zero phase of the cycle "Pinky" (like the "big finger") the rate of temporal change of orbital angular momentum of the sun is zero. Since the orbital angular momentum has an effect on the rotational speed of the sun, this must have an impact on the magnetic activity of the sun.

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 44 shows the distribution of strong x-radiation-flares (X?6) between the zero crossings "Pinky" (arrows) in the period 1970 - 1992. It is clearly seen that the energetic solar flares directly focus on the periods before and after the cycle "Pinky" of the variance of orbital angular momentum, Source: Dr. Landscheidt. This should have an effect on weather patterns and the cycle should be found there again

Dynamic Solar System - the actual effects of climate change

Figure 45 shows the global temperature evolution in the period from 1979 - 2011. The smoothed curve shows a period of on average 7.5 years.
This is the exact period length according to Dr. Landscheidt and confirms that its findings were correct and the correlations to the solar activity found by him directly reflect in climate on Earth.

Part 1: The sun sets the temperature response
Part 2: The sun - the amazing star
Part 3: Sunspots and their causes
Part 4a: The atmosphere of the sun: The corona
Part 4b: Heliospheric current sheet and interplanetary magnetic field
Part 5: The atmosphere of the sun: The corona
Part 6: The influence of the sun on our weather / climate
Part 7: The influence of the sun on the cloud cover beyond Svensmark
Part 8: Future Development and the temperature fluctuations